Thinking

Five years of trying to predict price direction. One day to realize I was asking the wrong question. I spent five years predicting crypto price direction. Up or down. Long or short. This time will be different. It never was. Then I understood something: I don’t need to be right. I need to bet at the right time. That’s the logic behind deep out-of-the-money options. Normal trading: predict direction, lose if wrong. ...

Five years of crypto losses. One decision to change everything. Bitcoin at $5,000–$6,000. I put money in. Went straight to 100x leverage. Days later, gone. I came back. In two nights, my account went from $2,000 to over $100,000. Bitcoin moving from $22k to $30k. High leverage. Perfect timing. I thought I finally understood the market. Then, over the next few days — almost all of it, gone. What followed was five years of something worse than losing everything at once. ...