Fear & Greed = 11. Bitcoin at $62,873. Here’s what the data shows.
February 5, 2026. Fear & Greed Index: 11.
Extreme Fear. Most people were selling.
Bitcoin was at $62,873.
If you had bought a 10% out-of-the-money call option that day — 7 days later Bitcoin hit $70,290. An 11.7% move.
That option returned +4,991%.
This Isn’t Luck. It’s a System.
I backtested 400 days of data.
Strategy: when Fear & Greed < 20 + large liquidation event happen simultaneously, buy 10% OTM options, hold 7 days.
Results:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Triggers | 28 times |
| Win rate | 3.6% |
| Average win | +4,991% |
| Average loss | -100% |
| Average ROI per trade | +81.8% |
Why Most People Stop Reading at “3.6% Win Rate”
And why that’s the wrong reaction.
27 trades × $10 = $270 invested, all expire worthless.
1 trade × $10 → $510 = +$500 profit.
Net: +$230 on $270 invested.
The math works. The psychology is brutal.
You have to sit through 27 consecutive losses to collect the one that matters.
Most people can’t. That’s why the edge exists.
The Signals That Triggered It
The February 5th trade wasn’t random. Three conditions aligned:
- Fear & Greed = 11 — historically rare extreme fear
- $72M in liquidations — largest in months
- IV Rank at historical lows — options were at their cheapest
All three together. That’s the signal.
Single signals alone don’t work. The edge comes from confluence.
Current Signal Status
As of today (March 10, 2026):
- Fear & Greed: 13 (Extreme Fear)
- BTC IV Rank: 47% (neutral — options not cheap enough)
- ETH IV Rank: 28% (weak buy signal)
- MaxPain deviation: BTC -4%, ETH -3% (both below current price)
Mixed signals. Not a strong entry point.
The system is watching. When the confluence returns, it will act.
Positions taken based on this system are live. Results will be documented here — wins and losses.
All content is for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk. Trade responsibly.
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